Opinion: Predicting the Winners (and Champions) of the 2023-24 European Seasons
By: Anthony Tazbaz
Image Credit: Liam McKay
Stay buckled everyone, we continue the beginning of the 2023-24 European club season.
With the Premier League, Ligue 1, and La Liga debuting last weekend, the Serie A and Bundesliga will begin this week. This means we can already start predicting potential winners and champions. I separate these two because I expect a few surprises from mid-level clubs who could qualify for a European competition.
The Bundesliga begins on Friday with nine-times defending champions Bayern Munich visiting Werder Bremen. The Serie A kicks off on Saturday as defending champions. SSC Napoli travel an hour north to Frosinone.
A Deeper Look
While I expect the champions of England, France and Spain to repeat success this season, I believe the Bundesliga and the Serie A could shape into different outcomes.
While Bayern Munich may have strengthened their squad with the signings of Harry Kane, 2023 Serie A Defender of the Year Kim-Min Jae, and the free transfers of Konrad Laimer and Raphel Guerreiro from rivals RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund, I have a feeling that both Borussia Dormund and RB Leipzig will once again put up a solid fight for the title, with Leipzig being my chosen club this time around. Leipzig also defeated Bayern 3-0 in the DFL Super Cup thanks to Dani Olmo's hat-trick.
However, Bayern Munich remains the favourite to win the title. Despite this, we have now seen that Bayern's position at the top of German football has never been more challenged today since 2012.
Elsewhere in Germany
With our title contenders mentioned, let's shift to the mid-level clubs who could compete for Champions League positions. Can Union Berlin and SC Freiburg play to the same level as they did last year? Can VfL Wolfsburg, Eintracht Frankfurt or Borussia Mönchengladbach return to the Champions League next season by finishing in the top four?
Wolfsburg and Frankfurt have a better chance, particularly due to their solid performances during the transfer window. Frankfurt acquired both young talents and established Bundesliga players for experience. Such acquisitions included making Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe's loan a permanent transfer (€6.5 million), acquiring Swedish 19-year-old midfielder Hugo Larsson from Malmö FF at the fair market price of €9 million, and signing veteran Tunisian midfielder Ellyes Skhiri on a free transfer from FC Köln.
Wolfsburg went the other direction by signing non-Bundesliga players, but who are nevertheless talented, particularly Danish international Joakim Maehle from Atalanta and Tiago Tomas from Sporting CP.
Borussia M'Gladbach may have more difficulty after losing star forward Marcus Thuram to a free transfer to Inter Milan, and Jonas Hofmann to Bayer Leverkusen for €10 million. New signings Tomas Cvancara and Franck Honorat will have their work cut out to lead the attack of a club who craves returning to their prolific attacking form from a couple of years ago, where they scored at least 55 goals for three consecutive seasons, putting themselves in the top quartile across the league for goals scored.
Finally, we should not discount Bayer Leverkusen who are in my opinion, the dark horse of the league. Since hiring Xabi Alonso mid-season during their last campaign, they completely changed their style of play and resurrected as one of the best clubs in Germany, where they finished fifth place after spending most of the season below the mid table area.
Despite losing Moussa Diaby to Aston Villa, they quickly filled the gap by signing former Arsenal captain (and current Swiss national team captain) Granit Xhaka for €25 million. Leverkusen also reinforced its attack by signing Victor Boniface and Jonas Hofmann from Union Saint-Gilloise and Borussia M'gladbach, respectively. Ultimately, I think they can not only compete for a Champions League position, but if the Bundesliga were to have a Leicester City-type moment, Bayer Leverkusen could be the club in question!
All'Italia
A little further South from the Southern states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurtenburg, we may see a new champion.
While the top seven Serie A clubs arguably further distanced themselves from the rest of the leagues in terms of squad quality, the positions from second to seventh can vary significantly, especially since most clubs found themselves only a handful of points behind some clubs, and another handful of points ahead of others.
While Juventus did not drastically change their squad and will be banned from competing in the UEFA Europa Conference League - for which they had to initially settle for due to a 10-point deduction last season - they can nevertheless compete for a Champions league position if they display similar performances. Had it not been for their financial malpractice, they could have qualified for the Champions League as they would have finished fourth.
Considering a possible top-four finish for Juve, we should strongly consider both Milan clubs and defending champions Napoli as the three other potential worthy qualifiers. Defending Serie A runners-up Lazio will likely drop in the table, particularly due to the loss of their star midfielder Sergej Milinković-Savić, who departed for Saudi club Al-Hilal.
I predict both Roma clubs will compete for the Europa League, with Lazio and Atalanta both positions, and AS Roma being the outlier settling for Conference League football. Atalanta's solid summer signings of Gianluca Scamacca, El Bilal Touré, and Mitchel Bakker from West Ham United, Leverkusen, and Almería will help strengthen a squad hungry to return to European prestige.
A New Champion?
Although I kept both Milan clubs and Napoli in the top four of the Serie A table, I (unfortunately) believe that Napoli may fail to defend their title. Despite managing to retain winger Kvicha Kvaratskelia and reportedly extending forward Victor Osimhen, losing star defender Kim-Min Jae to Bayern Munich could prove to be costly. Losing manager Luciano Spaletti to Rudi Garcia also raises questions about their capabilities of winning the title again.
Although they managed to find Kim's replacement in Brazilian centre-back Natan from Brazil Serie A club RB Bragantino, Rudi Garcia's coaching doesn't quite ring as anything inspirational, with his best performance being an appearance and getting blown out in the 2018 Europa League final with Marseille against Diego Simeone's Atlético Madrid.
Diego's son, Giovanni who played for Napoli on loan last season, signed permanently from Hellas Verona below market value at €12 million, one of two other major signings made by the Neapolitans. They also recently signed Swedish midfielder Jens Cajuste from Stade de Reims for €12 million, who will likely fill the void left by Polish midfielder Piotr Zielinski, who for a while, likely seemed to be on his way out.
Coupled with Napoli's poor form and mediocre results towards the end of the season - as I believe clubs figured out their playing style - I think Inter Milan will be the next champion of Italy.
Despite losing Romelu Lukaku, they managed to replace him with Marcus Thuram, a younger and more energetic player who can pair better with winger Lautaro Martinez. They also replaced Andre Onana with Swiss goalkeeper Yann Sommer. Francesco Acerbi will also provide stability to their already solid defence following the departure of former captain Milan Skriniar for PSG.
I may even put AC Milan before Napoli due to the series of new signings which will likely put the league on notice. However, given the average young age of their signings (23.2 years old) and the change in upper management, we may need to give the club some time to fully realize their potential and return to Campioni d'Italia.
Bottom Line
While we already witnessed the first batch of exciting matches in the Premier League, Ligue 1, and La Liga, I believe that the Bundesliga and the Serie A will be even more entertaining and may bring new(ish) champions.
Although Inter Milan may not repeat their run to the UEFA Champions League final, the Nerazzuri will likely dethrone Napoli and Bayern Munich will have to once again fight to win a 12th consecutive title. Bayern have proven that they could do so under the most intense pressure following a coaching change and a divided dressing room. Nothing tells me they can't do so again after acquiring the best forward and club captain available!
