Opinion: Predicting the Winners (and Champions) of the 2023-24 European Seasons

By: Anthony Tazbaz

Image Credit: Nelson Ndongala

Buckle up everyone, we are heading towards a new journey: the 2023-24 European club season.

With the Premier League, Ligue 1, and La Liga debuting on Friday, and Serie A and Bundesliga starting the following weekend, we can already begin to predict potential winners and champions. I separate these two because I expect a few surprises from mid-level clubs who could qualify for a European competition.

Diving Deeper

Despite being rightly excited for the new season, I do not expect much change in terms of the title winners for the three leagues beginning this weekend. Despite losing Riyad Mahrez to Saudi Arabia's Ah-Ahli and Ilkay Gündogan's free transfer to FC Barcelona, Manchester City nevertheless remain a top club, thanks to their solid core and depth, and the additions of Croatian midfielder Matteo Kovacić, and defender Joško Gvardiol, which became the most expensive transfer for a defender at €90 million.

Despite losing veterans Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba, and failing to acquire Leo Messi, FC Barcelona Gündogan's arrival will improve the midfield. Gündogan is undoubtedly a far more versatile player than Busquets and came off his best season so far by playing a massive role in Manchester City's treble, including scoring a brace in their 2-1 win against Manchester United in the FA Cup final.

With Real Madrid investing into their future and losing their best scorer following Karim Benzema's move to Al-Ittihad, and Atlético de Madrid having yet to significantly improve their squad, Xavi's FC Barcelona are in pole position to repeat as Spanish champions despite not being able to play at Camp Nou due to construction.

If they can limit the outgoing talent in addition to Busquets and Alba joining Messi at Inter Miami, Franck Kessie to Al-Ahli, and Ousmane Dembélé to Paris Saint-Germain, their attack led by Robert Lewandowski and midfield led by Frenkie de Jong will complement a young defence and star goalkeeper in Marc-Andre Ter-Stegen in their ambitions to the 2023-24 La Liga title.

In France, Paris Saint-Germain unsurprisingly start the season as title favourites, despite losing Leo Messi and likely losing Kylian Mbappé. Hiring Luis Enrique during the offseason soon after dismissing Christophe Galtier could pay off beyond Ligue 1, as they seek their first Champions League title and a first Coupe de France title since 2021.

Despite uncertainty around Mbappé and the inconsistent fitness and possible departure of Neymar, Ousmane Dembélé's imminent arrival from FC Barcelona will add quality to their attack. However, their attack will hinge ever-more on the shaky fitness levels of Neymar and Dembéle.

Moreover, with Portuguese forward Gonçalo Ramos on the verge of signing in the French capital on an €80 million fee, this new look in attack could prove to immediately pay off while also being a no-brainer in terms of a strategic longer-term investment.

In addition, the signings of Uruguayan wonderkid Manuel Ugarte from Sporting CP and Marco Asensio on a free transfer from Real Madrid could add the energy PSG lacked in the attacking aspect of their midfield, having leaned far too defensively and culminating into zero goals in the UCL knockout stages.

Yes, But

Despite likely repeat-title winners, I believe that many clubs can cause a surprise in these three leagues. In England, Aston Villa's form under Unai Emery and their offseason moves (see previously-written article) are turning the Birmingham club into a solid top 5-7 club, with potential to enter the top-four. Newcastle United will also likely battle for a top-four position, where they finished last season.

In addition, Brighton & Hove Albion will aim to remain a disrupter in the Premier League after finishing 8th last season, despite not being a sizeable club. Their underrated talent led by Alexis Mac Allister, Moises Caicedo, and Japanese international Kaoru Mitoma.

However, Moises Caicedo's potentially imminent departure could signal a new signing or more playing time for veteran midfielder James Milner, who recently signed from Liverpool or one of their younger talents. He complements the arrval of attacking midfielder Mahmoud Dahoud, who arrived from Borussia Dortmund this summer on a free transfer. Premier League veterans Adam Lallana and Danny Welbeck also prove to be effective in leading such a group to new heights, as they accomplished last season. Mitoma's talent, coupled with the firepower from Ecuadorian Pervis Estupiñan, Englishman Solly March, who both had incredible performances throughout the 2022-23 season.

Brentford FC and Burnley FC will also be clubs to watch, with the latter winning the EFL Championship title under former Manchester City captain Vincent Kompany. Brentford's main concern for now is David Raya's situation. Clubs such as Arsenal and Bayern Munich are in the hunt for a talented goalkeeper who can take the reins from Manuel Neuer or compete for the starting position with Gunners shot-stopper Aaron Ramdale. If Raya departs, Brentford needs to pursue either Keylor Navas from PSG, or Croatian international Dominik Livaković, should they fully channel their ambitions.

Burnley can create major surprises, either by climbing into the upper-mid-table area of going far in the EFL or FA Cups. Following a historic EFL Champions campaign, they now signed Manchester City goalkeeper James Trafford and Swiss prodigy Zeki Amdouni from Lausanne Sport, who spent last season on loan at FC Basel and were one goal away from a place in the Conference League final. They join a young and hungry group, who also find themselves re-united with Dutch forward Wout Weghorst, who spent the latter half of the season on loan at Manchester United.

Beyond England

In La Liga and Ligue 1, we may see some surprises, but nothing too fancy. The Spanish top flight will always have the same top six or seven clubs competing for UEFA competitions, while the remainder of the table fight for better prize money which is contingent on the specific position one finishes in the table. At the top, the Madrid clubs will fight for second place and the Seville clubs will join Athletic Club, Real Sociedad, Valencia, and Villarreal for third and fourth place to get to the Champions League.

Despite this, there could always be a slim chance for an outlier to slide into the top quartile, or at least near it. The favourites to do so are likely Osasuna, who finished seventh last season and made it to the final of the Copa del Rey, Girona FC, who are mostly owned by City Football Group (47%), and Mallorca following a decent season by finishing ninth and only three points behind Osasuna.

However, knowing the French league, a smaller club such as RC Lens last year could make their way into a European position. Their 2nd place finish earned the Northern French club a ticket to the UEFA Champions League, where their crowds (35,000 capacity) will undoubtedly exceed the population of the town (30,000).

The big questions marks in France always lie with Lyon, Marseille, Monaco, Nice, and Lille, all of whom play top-notch football vis-à-vis Ligue 1 standards, yet always find themselves in a hole for an entire season or two. Stade Rennais's young core and strong work ethic led by veteran leadership always surprise many, especially during matchups against the major clubs. I expect Stade Rennais, and even FC Lorient, who started very well last season, to find significant success. Also, can FC Nantes return to the Coupe de France final, or can Toulouse FC repeat as champions?

Departures of PSG's Messi, Lens' Seko Fofana, Marseille's Dimitri Payet and Alexis Sánchez, Rennes' Lesley Ugochukwu, and the pending departure of Mbappé will definitely hurt the quality of Ligue 1. However, for a league that generates top talent, there will never be a shortage of young hungry squads seeking to make history by qualifying for a European position, winning the Coupe de France title, or trying to replicate the Ligue 1 triumphs of AS Monaco and Lille in 2017 and 2021, respectively.

Bottom Line

Although the champions will likely remain on the trophy and in the record books in a year from now, I expect historic breakthroughs from a handful of clubs. These clubs will ultimately prove that, although Saudi Arabia is shrewdly draining the veteran talent, pool football is still alive and well in Europe.

Last year's triumphs by mid-level clubs and significant disappointments by a handful of major clubs (we see you Chelsea and Sevilla) across all five leagues should not only be a notice, but a trend in the growth of the game, and the spread of talent across all leagues and the competitiveness displayed from teams in European positions to the those fighting for their lives in the relegation zone.