Opinion: Predicting Europe’s 2024-25 Top Five League Winners (Part 2)
By: Anthony Tazbaz
Image Credit: Josip Ivankovic
With the offseason coming to a curtain call, it is time to look towards the 2024-25 club season in Europe, which begins for many competitions — including the Premier League (EPL), Serie A, Ligue 1 and La Liga — this week. With Part 1 having covered predictions for the EPL and Serie A, part 2 of this series tackles those of Ligue 1, La Liga and Bundesliga.
🇫🇷 Ligue 1
Last season’s notable rankings:
Winners: Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)
Qualification for UEFA Champions League (UCL): AS Monaco and Stade Brestois (Brest)
Qualification for UEFA Europa League (UEL): LOSC Lille and OGC Nice
Qualification for UEFA Conference League (UECL): Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)
Relegation: FC Metz (via playoffs), FC Lorient and Clermont Foot
Promotion from Ligue 2: AJ Auxerre (winners), Angers SCO and AS Saint-Étienne (via playoffs)
Without any surprises, it is safe to say that PSG will likely repeat as Ligue 1 champions. While Monaco and Lille defied the odds and eclipsed Les Parisiens in the title races of 2017 and 2021, respectively, it is unlikely that a re-galvanized squad – despite the departure of star forward Kylian Mbappé – under Luis Enrique will end the season behind one of their domestic competitors. Bet365 also lists PSG as 2024-25 title favourites with favourable odds at 3/10. Marseille are listed second at 12/1; Monaco at 14/1; Lille at 16/1; and RC Lens at 18/1.
With that being said, nothing is impossible. While Ligue 1 clubs usually experience a so-called “brain-drain” – where highly touted players depart for big-name clubs – some French clubs use the summer as an opportunity to improve their squad in quiet fashion. The clubs that have been doing so – and despite Bet365’s odds, I believe that they may achieve the unlikely triumph – include Lyon, Marseille and Monaco.
For instance, Lyon completed several notable signings this offseason. First, they converted 2023-24-loanees Orel Mangala (midfielder from EPL club Nottingham Forest), Saïd Benrahma (forward from West Ham United) and Ernest Nuamah (forward from Belgian Pro League club RWD Molenbeek) to permanent transfers worth €23.4 million, €14.4 million and 28.5 million, respectively. These players played crucial roles in Lyon’s resurgence during the second half of last season, which culminated in clinching a berth to this season’s UECL and a Coupe de France final appearance that resulted in a 2-1 loss against winners PSG.
As well, Lyon strengthened their roster with the signing of defender Moussa Niakhaté from Nottingham Forest. Having arrived for €31.9 million, the Senegalese international will replace defender Jake O’Brien – Lyon’s only significant departure this summer – who signed at Everton for a €19.5 million transfer fee.
Finally, Les Gones also signed Georgian forward Georges Mikautadze, after hijacking the transfer from rival club Monaco. Mikautadze, who scored three goals for Georgia at the 2024 UEFA European Championship (Euro 2024), arrived from now-relegated FC Metz for €18.5 million. Being Georgia’s prized marksman – paired with star forward/winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – Mikautadze will provide additional scoring for a club that accumulated solid attacking depth; the Georgian is part of an attack that includes French international and Olympian Silver medalist Alexandre Lacazette and Nigerian international Gift Orban.
Elsewhere on the field, Lyon possesses sufficient talent and depth to make a run and return to UCL football in 2025-26. However, they will need to hit the ground running as of opening matchday and maintain health and consistency throughout the season. Such an outcome could also enable the club to make a run in this season’s UECL and Coupe de France, the latter of which they came incredibly close to hoisting. Although they are capable of clinching a UCL berth, Lyon could also pose a threat to PSG’s reign should Paris suffer a considerable slump at some point throughout the season – ideally sometime before March – and feel considerable pressure ahead of their matches.
Marseille, another potential competitor and forever-archrival of PSG, completed significant transfer deals – purchases and sales – throughout the summer. For instance, they sold several players that were deemed to no longer fit in their plans. Among these players consisted of undesirables – notably defender Jordan Amavi, who left for league rivals Brest on a free transfer – and mainstays, such as midfielder Jonathan Clauss and forwards Iliman Ndiaye and Ismaïla Sarr, who left for southern French rivals OGC Nice, Everton and fellow EPL club Crystal Palace for €5 million, €18 million and €15 million, respectively.
Moreover, Marseille overhauled their attack by cashing in on the sales of Vitinha and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – both of whom were at the club for less than two seasons – to Serie A club Genoa and Saudi Pro League club Al-Qasidah for €16 million and €9 million, respectively.
With respect to their arrivals, Marseille have a new pair of forwards in 21-year-old Frenchman Elye Wahi and Englishman Mason Greenwood, who arrived from fellow league rivals Lens and Manchester United for €25 million and €26 million, respectively. In the midfield, the Provence-based club added Canadian and Argentinian prodigies Ismaël Koné from EFL Championship club Watford FC and Valentín Carboni from 2023-24 Serie A winners Inter Milan for €12 million and a one-year loan along a buy option, respectively.
The club also signed experienced Danish midfielder Pierre-Emile Højbjerg on a one-year loan from Tottenham, which is accompanied with a buy option at the end of the season. Marseille also added reinforcements to their defence, acquiring Bamo Meïté, Lillian Brassier and Derek Cornelius from Ligue 2 club FC Lorient, Brest and Swedish club Malmö FF for €10.5 million, €4 million and a one-year loan with a buy option, respectively.
Finally, Marseille replaced last year’s goalkeeper – Pau Lopez, who departed for La Liga club Girona FC on a one-year loan – with Argentinian international Géronimo Rulli, who arrived from Eredivisie club Ajax for €4 million. With Marseille not competing in a European competition this season, they can fully focus on a top-three Ligue 1 finish – sufficient to qualify for UCL – and a possible 11th Coupe de France title, which would be a first said title since 1989.
Monaco, which finished second place in last year’s Ligue 1 campaign, will pose the likeliest possible threat to PSG’s reign. Despite losing forward Wissam Ben Yedder and midfielder Youssouf Fofana to free agency and a €20 million-transfer to AC Milan, respectively, forward Breel Embolo – who returned from an injury that sidelined him for almost all of last season – could undoubtedly take over as the starting forward for the principality club.
His injury did not prevent him from displaying excellent performances at Euro 2024, during which he scored two goals for the Swiss national team. In the attack, Embolo will also be supported by new 18-year-old-signing George Ilenikhena, who arrived from Belgian Pro League club Royal Antwerp for approximately €18.8 million. Monaco will be able to rely on his goalscoring, having scored 14 goals in all competitions last season, including UCL.
Furthermore, Monaco did a Camara-for-Camara swap in the midfield, having lost Mohamed Camara to Qatari Stars League club Al-Sadd for €16.5 million while having acquired Lamine Camara from Ligue 2 club FC Metz for €15 million – Monaco accumulated a net profit of €1.5 million while also finding a younger replacement.
Finally, the club also strengthened their backline by adding Christian Mawissa from league rivals Toulouse FC and completing a permanent transfer for German defender Thilo Kehrer from West Ham for €16 million and €11 million, respectively.
Although Monaco will rely on their youth to achieve domestic success and extend their presence in this year’s UCL campaign, it would not be the first time that young players played a vital role in the club’s recent success. One does not need to reflect long and hard to be reminded of Real Madrid star players Aurélien Tchouaméni and Kylian Mbappé, who played an instrumental role in Monaco’s Ligue 1 title and their run to the UCL semifinals in 2016-17.
Although PSG’s reign may go unchallenged this season, expect such clubs as Lyon and Marseille – or at least one of the two – to return to UCL football by next season. With Monaco likely finishing among Ligue 1’s top three clubs once more, and another Stade Brestois potentially plotting a surprise, it will be an interesting race among these three clubs – and a possible outsider – to qualify for Europe’s premier competition.
With PSG needing to rely on young blood and a not-so-in-form Randal Kolo Muani (at least with Paris) to fill the gap left by forwards Kylian Mbappé and Gonçalo Ramos’s long-term absence due to injury, a dip in scoring and lack of wins down the road could open the door for a possible challenge. Should certain clubs capitalize, it would at least make PSG’s derby matches against Marseille and Lyon more interesting and appealing to the average viewer who is tired of seeing PSG continuously dominate French football.
Predicted 2024-25 Ligue 1 winners: Paris Saint-Germain
🇪🇸 La Liga
Last season’s notable rankings:
Winners: Real Madrid
Qualification for UCL: FC Barcelona, Girona FC and Atlético Madrid
Qualification for UEL: Athletic Club and Real Sociedad
Qualification for UECL: Real Betis
Relegation: Cádiz CF, UD Almería and Granada CF
Promotion from Segunda División: CD Leganés (winners), Real Valladolid and RCD Espanyol (via playoffs)
Although this platform follows La Liga the least closely in comparison to Europe’s four other top leagues, it is equally important to predict potential winners and their contending opponents. According to Bet365, Real Madrid have favourable 2/5 odds at winning the 2024-25 La Liga title. Bet365’s odds rankings listed Barcelona in second place at 7/2; Atlético Madrid at 10/1; Girona at 20/1; and Real Sociedad at 25/1.
Although I misjudged last season’s predicted winners – FC Barcelona – after they had won La Liga the previous season, I expect Real Madrid to repeat as La Liga winners, despite having lost veteran defender and captain Nacho Fernández and reliable substitute forward Joselu, who both joined the trendy exodus to the Middle East. Both players left on a free transfer and for €1.5 million, respectively; Nacho plays for Saudi Pro League club Al-Qasidah and Joselu plays for Qatari Stars League club Al-Gharafa. Moreover, Madrid sold young reserve defender Rafa Marín to Napoli for €12 million and saw veteran midfielder Toni Kroos retire following his farewell performances at Euro 2024.
To fill these gaps, Madrid added star forward Kylian Mbappé as their new starting forward. On Wednesday, August 14, Mbappé scored on his competitive debut for Madrid during the UEFA Super Cup against Atalanta. A solid season similar to those exhibited at PSG could earn Madrid additional silverware and Mbappé a potential Ballon d’Or.
As well, in their quest to return to a pedigree comparable to that of Los Galaticos, Madrid also added 18-year-old star midfielder Endrick. Initially signed in January 2023, the Brazilian international arrived from Brazilian Série A club Palmeiras for €47.5 million. Pundits predict Endrick to take the reins of European club football and be a leading figure in Brazil’s elusive rise to achieve glory on a continuous basis.
La Liga clubs that may be able to contend against Madrid include Barcelona and Atlético Madrid. It is first and foremost customary to include Barcelona as a contending club vis-à-vis Madrid.
The Catalonia-based club added Barcelona-born attacking midfielder Dani Olmo from Bundesliga RB Leipzig for €62 million, with add-ons included. This transfer materialized after Olmo’s impressive performances at Euro 2024, during which he finished as joint-top scorer with three goals and played a crucial role in helping Spain win a record-fourth Euro title. However, Olmo’s signing constitutes the only major transaction for the club, with forward Pau Víctor being Barcelona’s other signing. The 22-year-old arrived from Catalonia rivals Girona FC for €2.5 million. Barcelona also did not lose any major pieces.
To the club’s benefit, Barcelona also did not lose any major pieces from last season’s squad. However, fans of homegrown talent from Barcelona’s academy – La Masia – are rightly entitled to lament the departures of forward Marc Guiu, midfielder Estanis Medrola and defender Chadi Riad. The trio of players departed for Chelsea, Serie B club Sampdoria and Real Betis for €6 million, €3 million and €9 million, respectively. With respect to their raw talent, all three players graduated from La Masia within the last three years. Other players that departed Barcelona include young out-of-favour defenders Sergiño Dest and Julián Araujo, who departed the club on a free transfer and a €10 million-transfer to Eredivisie club PSV Eindhoven and Bournemouth, respectively.
Barcelona’s locker room will also feel the departures of defenders Marcos Alonso and Sergi Roberto, both of whom remain without a club. Although defenders saw their playing time diminish over the last couple of seasons amid new rising stars coming out of La Masia, both players played a key role in trying to maintain a high morale amid last year’s turbulence on and off the pitch.
With the lack of moves and financial constraints, Barcelona are seemingly shifting towards a philosophy centered on homegrown prodigies and young talent within Spain – one that enabled the club to become virtually unbeatable in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
Real Madrid’s fierce competitor within Spain’s capital city limits – Atlético Madrid – will likely pose a greater threat this season to Los Blancos. While Barcelona completed one significant signing, Atlético completed three such signings. First, the club signed a pair of forwards: Alexander Sørloth and Julián Álvarez for €32 million and €95 million – with add-ons included – respectively. Sørloth, a Norwegian international who arrived from league rivals Villarreal CF, finished second in La Liga scoring with 23 goals, only behind Ukrainian international Artem Dovbyk (24), who recently departed for Serie A club AS Roma.
Álvarez, who served as a reliable young asset to City’s depth, appeared in 67 EPL matches, having scored 20 goals and provided 10 assists. In UCL, he scored eight goals and provided four assists while helping City win their first said title and their first treble – EPL, FA Cup and UCL – in club history. At the international level, the 24-year-old possesses extensive experience and achieved considerable success with Argentina’s senior national team, having won the 2021 and 2024 Copa América titles and the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Despite his age, Álvarez’s arrival under manager Diego Simeone represents City’s biggest sale of a player in club history.
The arrivals of Sørloth and Álvarez replace forwards Alvaro Morata and Memphis Depay, who departed for AC Milan for €13 million and for free agency, respectively.
Moreover, multiple reports indicate that Chelsea midfielder and captain Conor Gallagher may still join Atlético, despite having been summoned to return to London. Should Gallagher’s transfer materialize, it would be an ambitious (and perhaps palatable) attempt to re-galvanize a lacklustre midfield; Atlético’s only significant departure in midfield was that of veteran Saúl Ñiguez, who departed on a one-year loan at league rivals Sevilla FC.
In defence, Atlético signed Spanish international Robin Le Normand from Real Sociedad for €34.5 million. Le Normand found recent success as a reliable anchor and leader at Sociedad, which earned him a starting role on the Spanish men’s senior national team at Euro 2024. There, he played an integral role in Spain’s quest to that competition’s title. Le Normand’s arrival fills a void left by the departures of veteran out-of-favour defenders Çaglar Söyüncü, Gabriel Paulista and Stefan Savić… as well as that of former footballer Diego Godin, whose departure in summer 2019 left a hole in that club’s renowned defensive prowess and leadership; the club has yet to replicate such feats at the same extent.
With Barcelona and Atlético likely not matching up with Madrid at the pinnacle of Spanish football, both clubs may face stiff competition from Basque-based Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao, and Catalonia-based club Girona, which finished in third place in last season’s La Liga rankings. All three clubs proved to be difficult opponents for Barcelona and Atlético, which may open the door to yet another challenge for UCL berths.
Last season, Girona finished ahead of Atlético. This season, we should evoke the slight possibility that Bilbao’s Nico Williams or Sociedad’s Martín Zubimendi and Mikel Oyarzabal – all of whom were a factor in Spain’s Euro 2024 triumph, with Williams and Oyarzabal scoring in that competition’s final against England – could lead their respective clubs into the 2025-26 UCL campaign.
Predicted 2024-25 La Liga winners: Real Madrid
🇩🇪 Bundesliga
Last season’s notable rankings:
Winners: Bayer Leverkusen
Qualification for UCL: VfB Stuttgart, Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund
Qualification for UEL: Eintracht Frankfurt and TSG Hoffenheim
Qualification for UECL: FC Heidenheim
Relegation: FC Köln and SV Darmstadt
Promotion from 2. Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli (winners) and Holstein Kiel
Last season, we witnessed one of the most dramatic title runs over the past two decades! Bayer Leverkusen — managed by Spanish legend Xabi Alonso — took the league and all of Germany by storm and won their first Bundesliga title in club history, thus erasing the pejorative nickname “Bayer Neverkusen” from Germans’ vocabulary. The best part: Leverkusen achieved the domestic double by also winning the 2023-24 DfB Pokal. Bayer’s domestic double culminated in zero losses in 40 matches across both competitions.
For the 2023-24 season, according to Bet Rivers, Bayer Leverkusen are predicted to finish as runners-up — at +210 — with German heavyweights Bayern Munich predicted to reclaim the Bundesliga trophy — at -190 — after finishing in third place last season. Both clubs’ odds are followed by those of Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart at +900, +1,200 and +6,600, respectively.
The Go-Ahead Goal’s prediction for winning the 2024-25 Bundesliga title is aligned with that of Bet Rivers, with Bayern Munich ultimately winning a 12th title in 13 seasons. These predictions are largely influenced by Bayern Munich’s offseason activity, which outdid that of Leverkusen, Leipzig, Dortmund and Stuttgart.
After taking a shocking blow to their spirits last season, Bayern Munich got to work and notified manager Thomas Tuchel that his contract would not be renewed — this was a foregone conclusion due to growing friction between Tuchel and senior management, but was confirmed once Leverkusen hoisted the league title.
Less than two months later, the German giants hired former player and Burnley FC manager Vincent Kompany. Despite limited coaching experience, the 38-year-old Belgian nevertheless managed Burnley to a 2022-23 EFL Championship title — and consequent promotion to the Premier League (EPL) — and was a leader among players on the field, having captained Manchester City to four EPL titles in 2011-12, 2013-14, 2017-18 and 2018-19, as well as the Belgian senior men’s national team to a third-place finish at the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia.
Despite a pool containing better available candidates to manage such a big club, Bayern Munich is undoubtedly moving into a new direction that mainly prioritizes youth and growth. Under this direction, Kompany may have been the most ideal manager candidate, with almost all other available managers being seasoned veterans of the game and who implement their own (and sometimes outdated) coaching tactics and philosophies.
Regarding transfers, Bayern Munich underwent significant changes in their defence. Despite losing centre-back Matthjis de Ligt and right-back Moussair Mazraoui to Manchester United for €45 million and €15 million, respectively, the Bavarian club strategically poached 24-year-old centre-back Hiroki Ito from rivals Stuttgart for €23.5 million. Under contract through June 2028, the Japanese international will likely become one of Bayern’s defensive leaders alongside — at least for now — French and Korean internationals Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae, respectively.
In addition, the Bavarian club also secured the permanent signing of centre-back Eric Dier, who arrived on a free transfer after spending the second half of last season on loan at the club from the EPL’s Tottenham Hotspur. The club’s youth players entering the first team will also provide fresh energy and replace such out-of-favour veterans as right-back Bouna Sarr and forward Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting, both of whom departed as free agents.
With respect to forwards, despite losing Choupo-Moting, as well as attacking midfielder Malik Tillman to Eredivisie club PSV Eindhoven for €12 million, Bayern Munich completed the blockbuster signing of forward Michael Olise and midfielder João Palhinha from EPL clubs Crystal Palace and Fulham FC for €53 million and €51 million, respectively. Olise, who is under contract at the Bavarian club until June 2029, is expected to bring a spark to a Bayern attack that is in need of enhanced firepower and clinical finishing. Olise’s 10 goals and six assists from 19 EPL matches meets Bayern’s needs. As well, Palhinha’s prowess in the midfield and transition into attack will provide the Bavarian club an additional option in a now-revitalized midfield.
Concerning Bayern Munich’s competitors, Leverkusen’s squad, which did not undergo many changes, can still pose a challenge to Bayern. First, Leverkusen looked towards Ligue 1 club Stade Rennais and purchased French forward Martin Terrier and defender Jeanuël Belocian for €20 million and €15 million, respectively. Then, the German club signed Spanish attacking midfielder Aleix García from La Liga club Girona FC for €18 million. Finally, Leverkusen also acquired French right-back Nordi Mukiele from Ligue 1 giants PSG. Mukiele returns to Bundesliga after having spent four seasons with RB Leipzig from 2018 to 2022.
These four signings will undoubtedly strengthen their squad and will fill a small gap left by the departures of Czech forward Adam Hlozek and right-back Odilon Kossounou, both of which left for Bundesliga club TSG Hoffenheim and Serie A club Atalanta for €18 million and a one-year loan, respectively.
Despite finishing two positions above Bayern and sweeping their counterparts during last season’s matches, Leverkusen’s additions are likely not enough to conquer Bayern Munich for a second consecutive season. Although the acquisitions of Terrier, Belocian and García represent sound signings for a club with a budget that pales in comparison to that of Bayern Munich, a club with the pedigree of Bayern’s will likely have done their homework to study and find a way to overpower Leverkusen.
Bayern also boast stronger depth than any club in Germany, which could be a major factor during the final third of the season, especially if Leverkusen decides to make a run in the UEFA Champions League (UCL). Shifting priorities to different competitions tend to deplete players’ stamina and could result in injuries among players. As well, Bayern’s squad should be able to perform with fewer distractions considering that the Tuchel saga is over, and senior management that can hopefully leave Kompany to manage the players at his own will.
With respect to Leipzig and Dortmund, both clubs improved slightly in attack, but have not demonstrated that they can compete for the 2024-25 Bundesliga title on a weekly basis. However, one of these two clubs will likely replace Stuttgart in the league’s top-three ranks, with Stuttgart having lost several of their star players, including Ito and prolific goalscorer Serhou Guirassy, who departed for Dortmund. Considering Dortmund’s and Leipzig’s respective squad arrivals and departures, defending UCL finalists Dortmund will likely take the third position ahead of Leipzig.
Dortmund’s ascent to third place will be owed generally to Dortmund’s superior attack — notably newcomer forwards Guirassy and Maximilian Beier from Stuttgart and Hoffenheim, respectively, as well as forward Donyell Malen and attacking midfielder Marcel Sabitzer — as well as its ascending youth talent, which include newcomer defender Yan Couto on loan from Manchester City, forwards/wingers Karim Adeyemi (see our Ones To Watch article on Adeyemi) and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens.
Ultimately, Dortmund will edge Leipzig in a battle for third place, with Leipzig settling for fourth place and finishing well ahead of its lower-caliber competitors. In the race for the Bundesliga title, however, Bayern Munich should reclaim the throne to Fußbal Meister by finishing approximately somewhere from two to seven points ahead of Leverkusen. There is one thing that will almost certainly be guaranteed this season: the race to the league title and UCL positions to represent Germany will once again be incredibly tight!
Predicted 2024-25 Bundesliga winners: Bayern Munich
Predict your Ligue 1, La Liga and Bundesliga winners in the comments below!
