Opinion: Predicting Europe’s 2024-25 Top Five League Winners (Part 1)
By: Anthony Tazbaz
Image Credit: Nelson Ndongala
With the offseason coming to a curtain call, it is time to look towards the 2024-25 club season in Europe, which begins for many competitions — including the Premier League (EPL), Serie A, Ligue 1 and La Liga — this week. Part 1 of this series consists of predictions for the EPL and Serie A; part 2, which will be released next week, will cover predictions for Ligue 1, La Liga and Bundesliga.
🏴 Premier League
Last season’s notable rankings:
Winners: Manchester City
Qualification for UEFA Champions League (UCL): Arsenal FC, Liverpool FC and Aston Villa
Qualification for UEFA Europa League (UEL): Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United (via FA Cup win)
Qualification for UEFA Conference League (UECL): Chelsea FC
Relegation: Luton Town, Burnley FC and Sheffield United
Promotion from EFL Championship: Leicester City (winners), Ipswich Town and Southampton FC (via playoffs)
Similar to the last two EPL seasons, the title race will likely come down to the wire once more between four-time reigning champions Manchester City and two-time runners-up Arsenal. Defending winners City, which are led by arguably the best manager in club football — Pep Guardiola — will begin the season as title favourites with 11/10 odds, per BET365 and Radio Times. Arsenal are ranked in second place with 15/8 odds; Liverpool in third at 7/1; and Chelsea in fourth at 20/1.
However, despite emerging as league champions on the final matchday of last season, the club has not made many transfers, let alone significant ones. City’s biggest transfer deal was that of Savinho, who arrived from partner club ESTAC Troyes in France’s Ligue 2 (Troyes were relegated to the Championnat National — French third division — last season) after spending one season on loan at La Liga club Girona FC, which are also owned by City Football Group, which owns all three said clubs. Although a young and promising attacking midfielder named Claudio Echeverri, who was signed by City in January for €18.5 million, will return from a loan at Argentina Primera División club River Plate — for which he played before his transfer — the 19-year-old will likely see limited playing time in the EPL and will rather be prioritized for the EFL and FA cup competitions.
With respect to outgoing players, The Cityzens are on the verge of losing young Argentinian forward Julián Álvarez, who as of writing, will sign with La Liga giants Atlético Madrid in the coming days. Although Álvarez’s departure will leave a gap in City’s squad depth in attack, his staggering €95 million price tag — a club record sale in value — will enable the club to pursue a big-name signing should they feel the need to use that sum. Although such established star players as attacking midfielder Kalvin Phillips and defender João Cancelo returned from their respective loans at West Ham United and FC Barcelona, City will likely aim to sell these players because they no longer have a significant role at that club.
With City scraping to last season’s title and that club’s lack of moves thus far, I fancy Arsenal to overcome the hump and win their first EPL title since their Incvincibles season in 2003-04. With respect to player signings, Arsenal enhanced their squad with the permanent transfer of Spanish goalkeeper David Raya from fellow EPL rivals Brentford FC and the blockbuster acquisition of Italian defender Riccardo Calafiori from Bologna FC. According to Transfermarkt, the transfer fees for both players were worth €31.9 million and €45 million, respectively. Considering the myriad of transfer rumours circulating across Europe (as well as the internet and social media), Arsenal are likely not done with signing marquee players; Napoli’s Victor Osimhen is one example.
Regarding Raya, one must hope that he has a stronger start to the season than the last, during which his blunders cost the team several points. Calafiori, however, is a revered anchorman who can shut down any opponent and provide much-needed energy to attacks – particularly counter-attacks – as he did against Croatia at the 2024 UEFA European Championship and with Bologna, which finished a historic fifth place in Serie A, thereby qualifying for UCL for the first time in 60 years. The 22-year-old Italian ultimately fills the major gap in Arsenal’s defensive lineup, which has been the star-studded offence and midfield’s Achilles heel.
Moreover, Arsenal’s outgoing players will likely have minimal impact to the team’s tactics and lineups, with several of their departing players – namely midfielders Mohamed Elneny and Albert Sambi Lokonga, forward Tavares, as well as reserve defender Cédric Soares and goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo – having played limited minutes during the past couple of seasons. Among those names, Elneny – who signed with Abu Dhabi-based club Al-Jazira – will be Arsenal’s second-biggest loss, but more so in the locker room than on the field, having played only 13 matches in all competitions throughout the last two seasons. Sambi Lokonga, who played in 19 matches across all competitions – having scored one goal and provided three assists – will also be a considerable loss, though replaceable, nevertheless. Tavares, who is also a known name, is on loan at Serie A club Lazio and has been on loan at two clubs over the past two seasons. While Emile Smith Rowe is undoubtedly Arsenal’s biggest loss so far this offseason, Calafiori’s arrival represents a massive upgrade to The Gunners’ backline.
Ultimately, considering City’s narrow margin of victory to the title from the last two seasons and Arsenal’s transfer moves having a more significant impact on their squad, I boldly predict Arsenal making history by overcoming the hump and preventing City from winning a fifth consecutive title. Such rival clubs as Manchester United, Chelsea FC, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Newcastle United and, arguably, West Ham United will be in a tough race for England’s three UCL positions.
However, if one of these clubs are a viable candidate a possible outsider candidate to winning the title, my money will go towards Manchester United, though this would only be remotely achievable if their established players and newly confirmed signings (Joshua Zirkzee and Leny Yoro), as well as their newest signings (Noussair Mazraoui and Matthjis de Ligt) all play up to par – if not above and beyond – with supporters’ and pundits’ expectations. As previously mentioned, another two-part series of articles will cover the race to UCL, UEL and UECL positions.
Predicted 2024-25 EPL winners: Arsenal FC
🇮🇹 Serie A
Last season’s notable rankings:
Winners: Inter Milan
Qualification for UCL: AC Milan, Juventus FC, Atalanta and Bologna FC
Qualification for UEL: AS Roma and Lazio
Qualification for UECL: ACF Fiorentina
Relegation: Frosinone, US Sassuolo and Salernitana
Promotion from Serie B: Parma (winners), Como and Venezia (via playoffs)
In Italy, Inter Milan will be entering the 2024-25 season as reigning champions – including as 20-time Serie A winners – and bettors’ favourites to repeat as Scudetto winners. According to Bet365, Inter Milan have -167 odds at winning the 2024-25 Serie A title; Juventus are ranked second at +350; AC Milan in third at +700; and Napoli in fourth at +800. This highly talented and experienced Inter squad led by Simone Inzaghi will seek a fifth consecutive season of winning silverware. This season, however, that streak could end – or at least the chances of winning back-to-back league titles.
While Inter cakewalked to the Scudetto last season – which was capped by a title-clinching win against city rivals AC Milan – I Nerazzuri will likely have a more difficult time to win this year’s title. First, Inter will likely stick to the same playing style that got them to the title. However, Inzaghi’s men did not perform as sharply in the build-up and after clinching the title, having won only one of their last four matches, which consisted of one win, two draws and one loss against relegation-bound Sassuolo. We also witnessed the same – though not as amplified – phenomenon with Napoli in 2022-23; the following season, Napoli finished 10th place, which was the worst title defence by a Serie A club. With that being said, Inter cannot afford a conservative approach to begin the 2024-25 campaign.
Second, with other clubs having more time to study the defending champions, an ambitious challenger to Inter’s title defence, namely Juventus, have been building their squads and improving in areas that lacked talent last season. For instance, so far this offseason, Juventus signed midfielders Douglas Luiz and Khéphren Thuram for €51.5 million and €20.6 million from Aston Villa and OGC Nice, respectively. These two players will revamp a French midfield of Adrien Rabiot and (formerly) Paul Pogba, who received a four-year ban for doping around one year ago. While Rabiot has been inconsistent for several seasons, Pogba’s loss constituted a major blow for I Bianconeri. With two new young and promising midfielders signed, Juventus are showcasing their seriousness at bouncing back after a disastrous 2022-23 campaign that was marred by points deductions and a one-season ban from UEFA competitions, which was in effect last season.
Another interesting signing is that of goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio, who arguably was the second-best Serie A goalkeeper last season at AC Monza, only behind Swiss international – and Inter shot stopper – Yann Sommer. The Italian goalkeeper arrived in Turin on a one-year loan with a buy option. One should confidently expect Di Gregorio to be Juventus’s starting goalkeeper for this season.
As well, Juve’s departures – including Matías Soulé to AS Roma, Dean Huijsen to Bournemouth, Moïse Kean to Fiorentina, as well as Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea to Aston Villa as part of the Luiz deal – all consist of players who fell out of favour with former manager Massimiliano Allegri. With that being said, despite having won the 2023-24 Coppa Italia, Allegri was sacked less than one week later and is replaced by Thiago Motta, who led an inspiring Bologna squad to their return to UCL football after a 60-year hiatus. Motta, who was revered at Bologna and by most teammates during his playing career, will bring a refreshing dose of leadership and stability to a club in desperate need of inspiration and a philosophy distant from those of Allegri and Sarri, which were boring and oftentimes ineffective against star-studded squads.
Juventus’s revamped squad and management staff will be going toe-to-toe with an Inter squad that also completed a pair of major signings, with their only significant departure being those of midfielder Valentín Carboni on loan to Marseille (with a buy option) and forward Alexis Sánchez to fellow Serie A club Udinese. In response, Inter completed the signings of Italian midfielder and international Davide Frattesi for €29 million from relegated Sassuolo. They also poached established Serie A goalkeeper Josep Martínez, relatively young midfielder (25 years old) Carlos Augusto and veteran forward Marko Arnautović for €13.5 million, €13 million and €8 million from Genoa, AC Monza, and Bologna FC, respectively. These transfers come out of the playbook of Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich, which are notorious for poaching talent from fellow league rivals. Finally, Inter also snatched two of the most talented players in free agency: Polish midfielder Piotr Zieliński and Iranian forward Mehdi Taremi, who arrived from fellow league rivals Napoli and Primeira Liga club FC Porto. These two additions may prove the most effective should they continue their form from the last two seasons.
Finally, Juventus would undoubtedly have to prioritize Serie A over Coppa Italia and UCL, in which they are featuring for the first time since autumn 2022, before the FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Although Juventus could make a run and repeat as champions of Coppa Italia, the latter stages fall at crucial moments in the league campaign; those moments in the season generally represent the turning points for high-ranked clubs – they either make or break their seasons. In addition, Juventus do not have sufficient depth to make a deep run in UCL. The ideal outcome under practical circumstances that would enable the club to win the title would be to either qualify for the round of 16 and go bow out in the quarterfinals – at least they won a round with a less talented squad than in the 2010s – or get relegated to UEL and contend for the title of that competition, for which they have more than enough depth while simultaneously competing for the Scudetto.
In all fairness, Juventus have a cracking chance at winning Serie A for the first time in the post-Cristiano-Ronaldo-and-Giorgio-Chiellini–Leonardo-Bonucci era. However, Inter’s summer signings may enable Inzaghi to tweak his roster and become more adaptable to various playing styles. With Inter’s veteran champions also one year older, it certainly helps to acquire a handful of experienced players, almost all of which arrived at a bargain. With that being said, I believe that, unlike in 2022-23 and 2023-24, this title race between Inter and Juventus will go down to the wire. In the end, Inter will bring a 21st and back-to-back Scudetto to the fashion capital of the world. However, I would be willing to put money on Juventus possibly winning the 2025-26 Serie A title. Other challengers in 2026 could be Roma, Milan and Napoli, which remain in the mix and are making promising moves to return to Italian glory. It is also worth noting that Atalanta’s run to the 2023-24 UEL title constitutes evidence that the Bergamo-based club is prepared to be the outsider vying for the title this season, as well as the next.
Predicted 2024-25 Serie A winners: Inter Milan
Predict your Premier League and Serie A winners in the comments below!
