UEFA Champions League: Midterm Evaluations
Image Credit: Janosch Diggelmann
By: Anthony Tazbaz
On October 4-5, clubs competing in the UEFA Champions League played their third match of the group stage, with the next Matchday taking place next week. With three games played and three games remaining, it is time to delve into clubs’ performances and evaluate performances across all groups amongst Europe’s top clubs in the world’s most prestigious club competition.
Group A
In Group A, Napoli took Europe by storm, arguably one of the top three performers amongst all European clubs. Their perfect record cannot be overlooked nor taken for granted. A Matchday 1 thumping of Liverpool (4-1) sent shockwaves across Europe, prompting pundits to ponder about Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp’s future at Anfield. Then, Napoli recorded two decisive away victories, including in Glasgow versus Rangers (3-0) and a 6-1 humiliation at the Amsterdam ArenA versus Ajax, giving Napoli a perfect record thus far (9 points). The trio of victories sent a statement to the rest of Europe: Napoli is ready for any challenge—even after losing star players Lorenzo Insigne, Kalidou Koulibaly, Dries Mertens, and veteran Fabian Ruiz. Liverpool, on the other hand, are also in a position to advance to the knockout stages (6 points).
Ajax, on the other hand, has an opportunity to prove themselves and exorcise their demons in Naples following their 6-1 home loss. For now, they trail Liverpool by three points and seem destined to compete in UEL (Rangers sit at the bottom with zero points). Although Ajax will aim to bounce back vs Napoli and Rangers, their duel versus Liverpool will constitute a make-or-break duel for the second position in Group A.
Prediction: Although surprises may arise, expect that Group A concludes in November with the status quo.
Group B
The Group B the standings have completely turned on its head vis-à-vis many preseason predictions. Although many expected Bayer Leverkusen 04’s shaky performance in a well-balanced group (1W, 2L, 3PTS), FC Porto’s record—identical to Leverkusen’s—fuels disappointment within the Northwestern Portuguese city. The defending Liga NOS champions undoubtedly played below expectation and will need to find inspiration to propel themselves to the following stage. In addition, Atletico Madrid’s record—also identical to Leverkusen’s and Porto’s—cannot come as a gift for its fans. The 2021 La Liga winners sit in last place, having lost their last two games while being shut out in the process. Despite being at the bottom, they have just as much of a chance as both Leverkusen and Porto to grab second place. The latter half of Group B matches should be quite interesting.
However, the biggest story—perhaps across all UEFA competitions—constitutes Club Brugge’s perfect record (3W, 9PTS), having scored on average more than two goals per game (7 total) and not conceding a single goal in the process. This string of performances includes a massive 4-0 blowout win over FC Porto at the famous Estadio do Dragão. Their performance throughout the three games puts them six points clear of every club, meaning one win should virtually guarantee them a spot in the Round of 16.
Finally, it is important to note that regardless of Brugge’s finish, the Belgian club proved themselves winners during the 2022 summer transfer window by purchasing 23-year-old Spaniard Ferran Jutglà for a fee of $5 million (USD) from no other than FC Barcelona. He already produced 13 goals + assists in 14 games throughout all competitions so far, including two goals in this very competition. Expect to hear his name more often in the near future and potentially receive his first call-up to the Spanish national team, perhaps as early as March 2023 if he remains in his current form.
Prediction: Club Brugge will claim first place in Group B. As for the remaining teams, Atletico Madrid will battle to claim second place. Porto, on the other hand, will drop to UEL and Bayer Leverkusen will fall out of the competition entirely.
Group C
Depending on whom you ask, this so-called group of death so far created little to no surprise. Bayern München FC once again demonstrated their class by winning all three games, including ones versus European heavyweights Inter Milan (2-0 away) and FC Barcelona (2-0 home). While Bayern won all three games, Czechia’s Viktoria Plzen FC—the outlier in the group of death—remains pointless with three losses (5-1 vs Barcelona, 2-0 vs Inter, 5-0 vs Bayern).
The contentious debate regarding the group’s surprise lies between the performances of both Inter and Barcelona. With Barcelona’s significant purchases this past summer transfer window, many expected Barcelona to have a winning record by the halfway mark, particularly following their dominant performance and Robert Lewandowski’s hat-trick versus Plzen. Despite displaying a respectable performance versus the might of Bayern at the Allianz Arena in Munich, the home team ran away with a 2-0 victory. Following Barcelona’s 2-0 loss was another loss (1-0) versus their main group competitor, Inter, at the San Siro in Milan. Despite the result, the second and third places remain up for grabs and both clubs—containing elite squads—will be poised to pick up every available point within their next three games.
Prediction: Barcelona wins their next game versus Inter at the Spotify Camp Nou, followed by both Barcelona and Inter defeating Plzen and losing to Bayern, thereby giving Barcelona the edge with three points above their Italian counterpart.
Group D
Arguably the most well-balanced group with four teams at a very similar level, it is of no surprise that all spots in this group are still very much up for grabs. Tottenham, the favourites of this group by a small margin, possesses a .500 record (1W, 1L, 1D, 4PTS) with an even goal differential. Perhaps their lack of goal scoring is lamentable, having only scored two goals, both coming in their opener against Olympique de Marseille. Since then, they remained goalless following a 2-0 loss at Sporting Lisbon and a goalless stalemate versus Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany.
At the bottom lies Olympique de Marseille, last year’s Ligue 1 Uber Eats runner-up and this year’s title-hungry squad. Despite a massive 4-1 win at the Stade Velodrome versus Sporting CP, the French club believes they can perform better, having lost their first two games and settling for three points and bottom of the group. In contrast, Sporting CP’s loss halted their UCL win streak. However, an underperforming Spurs and an average performance by Frankfurt (1W, 1L, 1D, 4PTS) leaves them at the top with six points. Ultimately, every position is up for grabs and not a single club in this group can be excluded from potentially advancing to the knockout stages, relegation to Europa League or crashing out from the tournament.
Prediction: Spurs find form and claim top position, followed by Sporting CP, Frankfurt transferring to UEL and OM crashing out of the tournament.
Group E
So far, this group has been far more interesting than anyone could have predicted. Last week fans witnessed a 3-0 thumping by London-based Chelsea FC at the expense of defending Serie A champions AC Milan. However, the major story thus far is undoubtedly Red Bull Salzburg’s impressive form, losing only one match since the start of the season across all competitions. Their unbeaten UCL campaign (1W, 2D, 5PTS) puts them at the top of Group E, ahead of AC Milan (1W, 1L, 1D, 4PTS), Chelsea (possessing an identical record to AC Milan), and Croatia’s Dinamo Zagreb (1W, 2L, 3PTS).
Fans should keep an eye on each club because any team could squeeze in or drop out of any position. For now, Chelsea and Milan remain the favourites to advance to the knockout stages, with a fierce contest for the UEL position between Salzburg and Zagreb. However, Salzburg’s persistent defence continues to give clubs headaches, whereas Zagreb demonstrated cunning effort in their 1-0 win versus Chelsea, ultimately sending a message that they are here to compete and win. In addition, Salzburg’s impressive defence provides the platform for Noah Okafor’s impressive scoring streak (three goals in three games). The Swiss international so far scored 100% of Salzburg goals and is in fine form with a lot more to offer. For final half of the group stage, keep your eyes peeled for Okafor’s flashy plays and superb runs, which can steal a win for RB Salzburg on any given day.
Prediction: Salzburg’s defence and Okafor’s scoring will allow the Austrian club to snatch a top-2 position, with Chelsea taking the other spot. AC Milan, despite being heavy favourites in finishing second, will have to settle for the UEL position, whereas Dinamo Zagreb will conclude their campaign finishing last, albeit following a string of respectable performances.
Group F
How are the defending champions faring? Well, they picked up right where they left off: Three wins in three games for nine points while only conceding one goal. The group favourites—and one of the competition favourites—look seemingly on autopilot towards capturing the top position of Group F.
The rest, however, remains unsettled. Ukrainian outfit Shakhtar Donetsk leads the pack for second place (1W, 1L, 1D, 4PTS). As for the rest, Germany’s RB Leipzig trails by one point (1W, 2L, 3PTS) and Scotland’s Celtic sits in last place with one point (2L, 1D), obtained away versus Donetsk. While a majority of fans could have expected such performances by Real Madrid, Celtic, and Donetsk, RB Leipzig undoubtedly performed below expectations. Their two losses at the Santiago Bernabeu and a 4-1 blowout loss versus Donetsk at Red Bull Arena should motivate this talented and experienced squad.
Prediction: With Real Madrid cementing Group F supremacy and Celtic dwelling at the bottom of the group, RB Leipzig discover their true potential and successfully fight their way to second place. Consequently, Donetsk suffers from relegation to UEL, giving the UEL fans a new club to look out for.
Group G
Looking at the standings, nothing comes to much of a surprise; Manchester City—the favourites to win the 2022–2023 UCL title—leads the group with a perfect record (3W) and a higher goal differential (+10) than the number of points (9). Borussia Dortmund sits comfortably in second with six points (2W, 1L), whereas both Sevilla and Copenhagen sit in the bottom two positions with one point (0W, 2L, 1D), respectively.
Some can point the finger at Sevilla for being winless so far. However, the real surprise in this group is Sevilla’s abysmal goal differential (-7). Their results (0–4 vs Man City, 0-0 vs Copenhagen, 1–4 vs Dortmund) prove indicative of a terrible season for Sevilla, who currently sits 18th in La Liga (relegation zone) after 8 games (1W, 4L, 3D, 6PTS). Already seemingly out of the race for a R16 spot, Sevilla will have to find resilience and turn their season around to avoid a humiliating La Liga finish and a potential nose-dive out of UCL.
Prediction: Manchester City cruises to first whereas Dortmund comfortably settles for second. Sevilla, meanwhile, will find a way to finish third and go to UEL, whereas Copenhagen leaves empty-handed.
Group H
Finally, Group H. While French and European heavyweights Paris Saint-Germain—the clear group favourites—sit at the top (2W, 1D, 7PTS), the fight for second place proves far more interesting than initially anticipated. While some expected Italian giants Juventus to struggle amid several injuries and declining domestically, it is fair to say that several are shocked at how badly they are struggling. Following a 2-1 loss at the Parc des Princes to PSG, their 2-1 home loss in Turin versus Portuguese outfit S.L. Benfica left many speculating on whether Juventus could even escape the group stage. In contrast, Portuguese Benfica displayed a string of impressive performances, beginning their campaign with a 2-0 win at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon versus Israeli club Maccabi Haifa. Facing heavyweights, their 2-1 win against Juventus and their latest result, a 1-1 home draw versus PSG, Benfica demonstrated their capabilities and ability to compete with Europe’s best.
Moving forward, Maccabi Haifa, the outlier of this group, will struggle achieving a single victory versus their opponents—two away matches versus Benfica and PSG and one home match versus Juventus. Meanwhile, PSG will most likely see out this phase of the competition with at least six additional points (2 victories) and crown themselves Group H winners. On the other hand, Benfica and Juventus will battle for the second position—both teams desperately want to avoid relegation to UEL. Benfica want to compete in the knockout stages to prove their value on a continental scale and continue giving Portuguese football a better name for itself. Juventus, however, aims to avoid the humiliation of a big-name club suffering relegation to a competition to which, a couple of years ago, seemed inconceivable for the club and its fans.
Prediction: PSG claim top of Group H while Benfica ultimately win the hard-fought battle, leaving Juventus in a humiliating position going down into UEL and Maccabi Haifa bowing out of the competition.
