UEFA Champions League Review: Mid-term Evaluations (Part 2: Losers)

By: Anthony Tazbaz

Image Credit: Janosch Diggelmann

Two weeks ago — on Tuesday, November 26 and Wednesday, November 27 — 36 clubs competed in their fifth UEFA Champions League (UCL) matches of the 2024-25 season. The UCL’s fifth matchday signifies that we are slightly beyond the half-way point of the novel 8-match league stage in a newly formatted competition. (For more information about the competition’s format, see our article on the topic.) The league stage replaced the conventional six-match group stage. 

Consequently, the top eight clubs in the UCL league stage table (UCL table) will automatically advance to the UCL round of 16, with clubs placed from ninth to 24th will play in a two-legged playoff series; the eight winners will advance to the round of 16. Clubs placed from 25th to 36th will suffer elimination from the competition; clubs no longer experience relegation to the UEFA Europa League.

That said, it is time to evaluate the top three losers that must significantly improve to qualify for the 2024-25 UCL knockout stages. We determined the three losers based on overall expectations, the clubs’ performances and their chances of advancing to the knockout stage. Part 2 comprises our three losers; Part 1 was released last week and comprises our three winners.

Unless indicated otherwise, all information was collected from the 2024-25 UCL matches and table.

#1 Real Madrid

Past 2024-25 UCL Results:

• Matchday 1: Real Madrid 3-1 VfB Stuttgart — Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

• Matchday 2: LOSC Lille 1-0 Real Madrid — Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille

• Matchday 3: Real Madrid 5-2 Borussia Dortmund — Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

• Matchday 4: Real Madrid 1-3 AC Milan — Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

• Matchday 5: Liverpool FC 2-0 Real Madrid — Anfield, Liverpool

Despite an upbeat start to their 2024-25 UCL campaign, Real Madrid lost three of their last four UCL matches, including two clean sheets against Ligue 1 club LOSC Lille and Premier League (EPL) club Liverpool FC. While losing against Liverpool may have been an expected outcome, their losses against Lille and Serie A club AC Milan at home represented missed opportunities to pick up points. This underwhelming sequence of results also culminated in Madrid losing three matches in a UCL group stage/league stage campaign for the first time in club history. 

As a result, Madrid sit in 24th place, the lowest position to clinch a playoff berth. Moreover, Madrid’s final three matches include two fixtures against clubs that are currently ranked among the top-10 in the UCL table. Their next match will take place at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo against Serie A club Atalanta, which are currently ranked fifth and remain only four points behind first-place Liverpool. This match will be a crucial affair for Madrid because a win can propel them as high as 13th place. A loss, however, can plummet the club’s ranking to as low as 27th place and out of the playoff picture. 

Madrid’s final two opponents are Austrian Bundesliga club Red Bull Salzburg and Ligue 1 club Stade Brestois (Brest). On the penultimate matchday, Madrid will play at home, and should undoubtedly win that match, especially if their injured players return from the infirmary. On the final matchday, Madrid’s duel against Brest may result in either a seamless win or, given Brest’s form, a gruelling affair that can go either way. Should the former occur, Madrid will most likely clinch a playoff berth. However, if Madrid lose two of their next three matches, we may need to entertain the unlikely reality in which the defending champions suffer an unprecedented premature elimination.

Ultimately, Madrid is going through a difficult spell. However, with three matches remaining, they can rely on their top-tier talent and extensive UCL championship experience to end their league stage campaign on a strong note and finish among the upper ranks of the playoff-qualified teams, or baring other teams’ results going their way, sneak into the top-eight club and qualify directly for the round of 16. Madrid supporters will undoubtedly be on the edge of their seats until the final minute of Madrid’s UCL league stage campaign.

#2 Paris Saint-Germain

Past 2024-25 UCL Results:

• Matchday 1: PSG 1-0 Girona — Parc des Princes, Paris

• Matchday 2: Arsenal 2-0 PSG — Emirates Stadium, London

• Matchday 3: PSG 1-1 PSV — Parc des Princes, Paris

• Matchday 4: PSG 1-2 Atlético Madrid — Parc des Princes, Paris

• Matchday 5: Bayern Munich 1-0 PSG — Allianz Arena, Munich

While Real Madrid can owe their underwhelming campaign to inconsistency, PSG must attribute their porous UCL performances to uninspiring attacking football and the consequent lack of goals. In five matches, PSG scored only three goals, having failed to score more than one goal in every match during their campaign. In particular, two of PSG’s goals were scored by defenders, namely Nuno Mendes in their opening match against Girona and Achraf Hakimi in their third match against Eredivisie (Dutch first division) club PSV Eindhoven. Midfielder Warren Zaïre-Emery (see our player profile via the link) scored PSG’s other goal in their fourth match against Atlético Madrid.

As a result, PSG find themselves in 25th place — one position behind Madrid and just outside the playoff threshold. Although many expected the Parisian club to experience a transition and less-glamorous season after the departure of several players — including star forward Kylian Mbappé — almost nobody expected to see PSG fall out of the playoff picture with only three matches remaining. To qualify decisively for a playoff position, PSG undoubtedly need to seize almost all remaining points in their next matches.

With three matches remaining against Salzburg, EPL club Manchester City and Bundesliga club VfB Stuttgart, PSG will have a difficult task ahead. Although Salzburg may prove to be a comfortable win, PSG will certainly need all hands on deck against the likes of City and Stuttgart. Although both clubs are currently raking in losses over the last half-dozen matches — as of writing, City are winless in eight of their last nine matches and, before their last two matches, Stuttgart were winless in five of their last six — PSG cannot underestimate their abilities to defeat talented clubs. PSG must leverage their youth to play a fast-paced game and break down the depleted and weakened squads of City and Stuttgart.

Ultimately, PSG’s young squad may need to understand that a top-eight position is a far-fetched reality. Instead, this young squad — led by the likes of forward Bradley Barcola and midfielders Vitinha, João Neves and Zaïre-Emery — should seek an upper-half position (ninth to 16th) among the 16 clubs that qualify for the playoffs. To that end, Les Parisiens will need to win at least two, if not all three of their matches. However, a more realistic outcome may be a final ranking in the lower half (17th to 24th) of the UCL league stage rankings. These last three matches represent a perfect opportunity for PSG’s young players to step up and ascend to stardom in Europe’s most prestigious competition. This is where stars are born!

#3 RB Leipzig

Past 2024-25 UCL Results:

• Matchday 1: Atlético Madrid 2-1 RB Leipzig — Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid

• Matchday 2: RB Leipzig 2-3 Juventus FC — Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

• Matchday 3: RB Leipzig 0-1 Liverpool FC — Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

• Matchday 4: Celtic FC 3-1 RB Leipzig — Celtic Park, Glasgow

• Matchday 5: Inter Milan 1-0 RB Leipzig — San Siro, Milan

While we generally save the best for last, in this case, we saved the worst for last — almost literally. In five matches, the east German club lost all of their matches, including a 3-1 shocker against Scottish Premiership club Celtic FC. Leipzig’s sequence of performances places them in 34th place out of 36 clubs. Leipzig are one of three clubs without having accumulated a single point; the two other clubs are Slovakian club Slovan Bratislava and BSC Young Boys. This current ranking is nothing short of a catastrophe for a club that regularly contended for a knockout stage position in previous UCL editions. 

Despite this dismal record, there are two silver linings for Leipzig. First, other than the loss against Celtic, Leipzig’s other losses occurred against big-name clubs and finished with a one-goal difference. Second, they remain a hopeful contender for this season’s Bundesliga and DfB Pokal titles. However, that prospect may slip away if they are not cautious in handling their domestic performances. 

Regarding UCL, it would ultimately require a miracle for Leipzig to squeeze into the playoffs; it is mathematically impossible for the Bundesliga club to earn a top-eight finish or even an upper-eight finish among the 16 teams that qualify for the playoffs. 

Their next UCL match — at home against Aston Villa — may be an opportunity to rebound and earn their first points. However, while facing an opponent of a similar calibre, Villa may nevertheless have a slight upper hand, especially considering that Leipzig also had to concentrate on their DfB Pokal round of 16 match — a 3-0 win against Bundesliga rivals Eintracht Frankfurt — one week earlier. 

Leipzig's penultimate match will take place in Lisbon against Primeira Liga club Sporting CP. Travelling a relatively far distance, Leipzig will also have to deal with playing in a hostile environment. Although they are no stranger to such crowds, by the New Year, the squad may already be tired and dejected with respect to their UCL campaign. While they are steadily tumbling in the 2024-25 Bundesliga table, Leipzig will undoubtedly have to consider signing a number of new players during the January transfer window. Finally, the Bundesliga club’s last match — at home against Austrian Bundesliga club SK Sturm Graz — will potentially result in a win, which would merely prove to be a consolation in a likely forgettable UCL campaign.