UEFA Champions League Final Four - Real Madrid vs Manchester City

Image credit: Vienna Reyes

By: Anthony Tazbaz

What a better way to start the UEFA Champions League semifinals than with the most exciting matchup of the season?! Real Madrid, the defending champions, clashing with Manchester City, arguably the competition’s favourites, is a match made in heaven. One does not need to go far back to remember the last time both clubs met in this competition, particularly in the semifinals.

Both clubs faced each other eight times in total, four of which occurred in the semifinals, with the most recent clash coming last year. Every fan, both neutrals and fervent supporters, remember Real Madrid’s sudden comeback at the Santiago Bernabéu, where Rodrygo’s heroic stoppage-time brace forced extra-time (5-5 on aggregate), and forward Karim Benzema once again demonstrated why he deserved the 2021-22 Ballon d’Or by scoring the winning goal in extra-time (3-1 a.e.t., 6-5 on aggregate). Fans should never forget this graph captured on French channel CANAL+:

Taken just before the 90th minute of the 2022 UCL semifinal 2nd leg, where Manchester City was leading 1-0, 5-3 on aggregate.

Real Madrid historically came on top versus their English counterparts (see chart below). The previous semifinals occurred in 2016, whereby in stark contrast to the 2022 semifinals, turned out to be one the most boring matchups in recent history, ending 1-0 on aggregate due to an own goal by midfielder Fernando. The Spanish giants went on to win the title against local rivals Atlético de Madrid on penalties, a first of three consecutive UCL title from 2016-2018. While Madrid finished with the upper hand in the 2012 group stage - where they met twice (1W, 1D) - the 2020 Round of 16 proved to be the only moment where City vanquished their opponent, winning 4-2 on aggregate (2-1, 2-1) before losing 3-1 to Lyon in the Lisbon bubble during the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown.

All-time Head to Head Matchups

How They Fared So Far

Both clubs are facing different predicaments in league play. Manchester City, who trailed behind Arsenal for the vast majority of the season, now find themselves in the driver’s seat, with a one-point lead at the top of the table and a match less played. Man City also booked a ticket to the FA Cup final following a convincing 3-0 victory against EFL Championship side Sheffield United. They will face Manchester United on June 3rd in an all-Manchester FA Cup final derby, a first for the competition.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, are seeing their hopes to win La Liga slip away at their arch rivals’ expense. FC Barcelona hold a considerable lead and now Real Madrid can only hope to finish second, ahead of no club other than Atlético de Madrid, who lead by one point. Despite the fight for capital supremacy, both clubs are virtually guaranteed to qualify for next year’s edition of the Champions League. On a brighter note, however, Real are coming off a 2-1 win versus Osasuna in the Copa del Rey final, where, you guessed it, Rodrygo played the hero once more by scoring both goals for the club. The last time Real Madrid were able to claim the Copa del Rey came in 2014 against FC Barcelona. They won the UCL title (aka La Decima - 10 titles) only a month later!

All eyes will be on Manchester City striker Premier League record-goalscorer Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne, who is arguably the best midfielder over the past several years. To counter the evident scoring threat, Real Madrid will rely on championship experience, with a midfield boasting elite veterans Toni Kroos and Luka Modrić, both of whom won 5 Champions League titles (Kroos won his first with Bayern Munich in 2013), and each leading their country to the World Cup final, where the former won the grand prize. Modrić, however, won a Ballon d’Or in 2018, who was then joined by Benzema just last year. Benzema’s partner in crime, Vinicius Junior, is also another menace on the pitch and is having an outstanding season. Top cap it off, Eduardo Camavinga and Axel Tchouameni - two of the best young midfielders - provide youth and additional energy to this elite midfield.

While Madrid have championship experience at virtually every position, Manchester City have a stronger squad on paper. Their firepower is practically unmatched in the Premier League, with their bench being strong enough to be a starting XI on a championship or Champions League-caliber club in any other league.

The elite matchups to watch are aplenty. First, there is undoubtedly Benzema and Vinicius Junior versus a stacked backline with the likes of John Stones, Rúben Diaas, Kyle Walker, and Manuel Akanji. Then, Haaland facing the toughness of Antonio Rüdiger, the efficient defending of David Alaba, and the unpredictable goalkeeper Thibault Courtois will be an interesting showdown. One should also highly anticipate an intense battle in the midfield between Modrić and Kroos against De Bruyne and Ilkay Gündogan, who is also having an outstanding season.

However, Manchester City’s bench, which (occasionally) includes the likes of Jack Grealish, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, and Julián Alvarez, can likely become the major difference-maker in this exciting matchup. All of those names are there for proof that at least a couple of those players start on the bench on a given night. That is ridiculous (and highly enviable).

However, Rodrygo could once again play The Chosen One and steal the show for a second consecutive match, and in consecutive years against the Cityzens.

Prediction:

Leg 1: Real Madrid 3-1 Manchester City

Leg 2: Manchester City 3-2 Real Madrid

Real Madrid advance to the Champions League 5-4 on aggregate for a second time in as many years.