Predicting the Final Three Qualifying Nations for Euro 2024

By: Anthony Tazbaz

Image Credit: Emerson Vieira

This week (and the next), we will witness the Euro 2024 qualifying playoffs — which follow the Euro 2024 group stage qualifiers — that consist of 12 participating nations looking to fill the final three slots for Euro 2024 held in Germany in June and July.

The 12 nations are divided into three divisions, known formally as “paths”. These paths are categorized based on the nations’ UEFA Nations League ranking at the time of the playoffs’ qualifying draw, with Path A consisting of the highest ranked nations and Path C consisting of the lowest. Only Estonia, who were the best performing club in League D of the UEFA Nations League, is placed in Path A with the three highest ranked participating nations.

Path A

Nations (FIFA ranking, February 2024)

• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales (29th)

• 🇵🇱 Poland (30th)

• 🇫🇮 Finland (60th)

• 🇪🇪 Estonia (123rd)

Matches/Results

• March 21 — Semifinals

  • Poland (5) vs Estonia (1), National Stadium, Warsaw (15:45)

  • Wales (4) vs Finland (1), Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff (15:45)

• March 26 — FINAL

  • Wales vs Poland, Cardiff City Stadium (15:45)

Overview

This path features the most experienced squads with respect to international competitions. For instance, three of the four participating nations featured in Euro 2020, with Wales having featured in the round of 16. Poland and Wales also qualified for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar; the former of which qualified for the round of 16 and the latter making their first appearance at the biggest stage since 1958. However, Wales have undergone several changes, including star player Gareth Bale announcing his retirement from professional football in January 2023.

Poland and Finland, however, still boast similar squads to Euro 2020, which include Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zieliński for Poland and Lukas Hradecky and Teemu Pukki for Finland; Pukki is part of a community of Finnish internationals playing in Major League Soccer, which include Minnesota United teammate Robin Lod, Robert Taylor for Inter Miami and Lassi Lappalainen for CF Montréal. As a result, the squads from both nations possess sufficient experience and firepower to achieve two consecutive wins in an incredibly high-pressure environment and advance to Europe’s most prized competition.

With Estonia being the outlier, it will be extremely difficult to qualify for their first international competition. To achieve the Cinderella story of the 2024 Euro qualifiers, the northeastern European nation will have to defeat Poland in the semifinals.

Path A Final

The Path A final will be played in Cardiff between Wales and Poland.

The hosts — Wales, who hosted the semifinal match — defeated Finland by a 4-1 score, with goals scored by David Brooks, Neco Williams, Brennan Johnson and Daniel James. Although they outshot Finland 15 to nine — 10 to two shots on target — Wales found themselves often chasing possession, having retained only 41% of ball possession throughout the match. In the end, Wales demonstrated that it requires more than lopsided ball possession to emerge victorious.

Elsewhere, Poland unsurprisingly crushed Estonia 5-1 in Warsaw. Like Wales, Poland’s goals were scored by four different players —Przemyslaw Frankowski, Piotr Zieliński, Jakub Piotrowski and Sebastian Szymański — with one own goal also going in their favour. In addition, Poland dominated the stat sheet, owning 85% of ball possession, completing 718 passes against Estonia’s 133 — amounting to 91% and 57% pass accuracy, respectively — and outshooting Estonia by 25 shots to one, with shots on target amounting to 10 and one for each nation.

With respect to the final, both nations possess significant experience in the Euro, with Wales having reached the semifinals in 2016 before losing to eventual champions Portugal by a 2-0 score. Poland, however, have struggled to make a deep run in any major tournament over the past few decades. With several ageing stars, this may be their last shot at potentially making an impact at such a stage.

Despite Poland’s firepower, Wales will have around 33,000 supporters backing them at the stadium during the match. Although Poland boast experience playing in such hostile crowds, they struggled to obtain wins in such environments over the past several years. As well, Poland’s overall qualifying campaign has been mediocre, finishing third in a group that resulted in Albania and Czechia — both nations ranking lower than Poland in the FIFA rankings — taking the first two positions. In contrast, Wales demonstrated resilience after falling to third in a well-balanced group that included Türkiye and Croatia taking first and second place, respectively.

Prediction: Wales will come out of this game strong and take an early lead, which will force Poland to chase the game, albeit a close one; Wales win 2-1 and qualify for their third consecutive Euro.

Path B

Nations (FIFA ranking, February 2024)

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine (24th)

• 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina (71st)

• 🇮🇸 Iceland (73rd)

• 🇮🇱 Israel (75th)

Matches/Results

• March 21 — Semifinals

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina (1) vs Ukraine (2), Bilino Polje Stadium, Zenica (15:45)

  • Israel (1) vs Iceland (4), Ferenc Szusza Stadium, Budapest (15:45)

• March 26 — FINAL

  • Ukraine vs Iceland, Wrocław Stadium, Wrocław (15:45)

Overview

Arguably the most well-balanced group, it is understandably difficult to determine a guaranteed winner. For instance, only four slots separate Bosnia and Herzegovina and Israel — with Iceland is nestled in between both nations — in the FIFA World Rankings as of February 2024. The outlier — Ukraine — may have the best shot at qualifying for a second consecutive Euro, after being one penalty shot call away from potentially qualifying for Euro 2024 instead of defending champions Italy.

Unlike other qualifying paths, Path B includes two nations — Bosnia and Herzegovina and Iceland — that competed in Group J during the previous round. Both nations fell considerably short from direct qualification, which was instead awarded to group winners Portugal — who had a perfect record of 10 wins — and runners-up Slovakia. (Third-place finishers Luxembourg will be competing in League C due to having competed in UEFA Nations League, League C.)

Israel, as well as Ukraine, finished third place in their respective groups — Groups C and I — and will be playing the entire playoffs on neutral territory due to ongoing regional wars. Against this backdrop, Israel’s playoff match will be held in Budapest, Hungary.

Path B Final

The Path B final will be held in Wrocław Stadium in Wrocław, Poland, with Ukraine as the host nation.

The hosts reached the final following a thrilling 2-1 comeback away victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina, making them the only nation out of the 12 to win a match on the road thus far. Trailing 1-0 after a 56th minute own goal, Ukraine scored a couple of goals at the 85th and 88th minute, courtesy of substitute Roman Yaremchuk and star talisman Artem Dovbyk, respectively. The latter — Artem Dovbyk — is using his international appearances to build on his excellent form this season with Girona FC; Dovbyk has raked in 15 goals and seven assists in 32 matches across all competitions.

The Ukrainians will be facing Iceland, who routed Israel with a 4-1 victory in Hungary. The victory included a hat-trick scored by Albert Gudmudsson and another goal scored by Arnór Ingvi Traustason. Iceland will be competing in their second consecutive Euro qualifying playoffs final; the previous appearance resulted in a 2-1 loss against Hungary.

Both nations boast world class talent and acquired significant experience in the past several years. Players such as Iceland’s Gudmudsson and Ukraine’s Dovyk, Ruslan Malinovskyi and Mykhaylo Mudryk play for renowned clubs in Europe’s top five leagues. As well, Ukraine have participated in two of the last three Euros, with their last appearance consisting of a run to the quarterfinals, before losing to eventual finalists England.

Iceland also gained experience in recent years, particularly during their spectacular Cinderella run to the Euro 2016 quarterfinals and qualifying for the 2018 FIFA World Cup, where they drew 1-1 against heavyweights Argentina. Having lost in the qualifying playoffs final three years ago and Ukraine having suffered the same fate two years ago for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, both nations will have a lot to prove ahead of their potential participation at the grand stage.

Prediction: Despite playing away from home on neutral territory, Ukraine nevertheless have the upper hand due to deeper talent within their squad; the Ukrainians ultimately win 3-1 and qualify for their third appearance among the last four Euros.

Path C

Nations (FIFA ranking, February 2024)

• 🇬🇷 Greece (49th)

• 🇬🇪 Georgia (77th)

• 🇱🇺 Luxembourg (85th)

• 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan (100th)

Matches/Results

• March 21 — Semifinals

  • Georgia (2) vs Luxembourg (0), Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi (13:00)

  • Greece (5) vs Kazakhstan (0), OPAP Arena, Athens (15:45)

• March 26 — FINAL

  • Georgia vs Greece, Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi (13:00)

Overview

Excluding Estonia — who compete in Path A — Path C consists of the lowest ranked nations from the UEFA Nations League and some of the lower-ranked in the FIFA rankings among participating nations. However, Greece and Luxembourg finished third in their groups — Groups B and J — and were both in contention for second place until the penultimate matchday.

Moreover, despite Kazakhstan finishing fourth in their group, they also remained in contention for second place until the final matchday. Georgia, however, were dealt a difficult qualifying group — Group A — which included Spain, Scotland and Norway. Despite this, Georgia still exhibited high quality football for a large part of their campaign and were only three points behind third-place Norway, who would have clinched a playoff berth had they won the group in UEFA Nations League, League B.

Overall, despite being ranked 77th, Georgia are now dealt a plausible chance to qualify for Euro 2024, which would constitute a first in their short history as a UEFA member. (Georgian players represented the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991.) Among the four nations in Path C, they boast some of the highest-quality players, including star Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who won the 2022-23 Serie A Player of the Year award during his first season in Italy’s top football league. The Georgian also scored four goals in eight matches during the first qualifying round for Euro 2024.

Greece, who are the highest-ranked nation in Path C, have a well-balanced squad, with talented offence guided by Giorgos Masouras’s five goals in eight matches and sterling defence led by Liverpool’s Kostas Tsimikas.

Lastly, Luxembourg and Kazakhstan also look to write history by qualifying for their first Euro. However, only one nation has a chance to do so. Interestingly, both nations could face each other in the final.

While Luxembourg try to play an imposing style of football — particularly against lower-ranked nations — Kazakhstan operate generally with a high-press defence and counter-attacks, which are designed to stall advancement of their opponents and hinder their playing style as the match progresses. What’s more, Kazakhstan became famous for rallying from 1-0 or 2-1 deficits during the matches’ latter stages and steal all three points, usually in a 2-1 or 3-2 win.

Ultimately, without considering odds, there is a 75% that a nation emerges from Path C and will participate in their first Euro.

Path C Final

The Path C final will take place in Tbilisi between Georgia and Greece.

Like Iceland, hosts Georgia will be competing in their second consecutive Euro qualifying playoffs final. In 2021 — having aimed to qualify for a spot at Euro 2020 — Georgia lost 1-0 against North Macedonia, which qualified for a first Euro since breaking away from Yugoslavia. This year, Georgia earned the right to host the final once more after defeating Luxembourg 2-0 — thanks to a brace by forward Budu Zivzivadze — in Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital. The end of Luxembourg’s inspiring run to near-qualification for Euro 2024 signals a renewed opportunity for Georgia to make history and book their own qualification for the final tournament in Germany.

However, Georgia’s qualification will not come easy as they will face Greece, who crushed Kazakhstan 5-0 at OPAP Arena in Athens. Greece’s goals were scored by Anastasios Bakasetas — via a penalty shot — Dimitrios Pelkas, Fotis Ioannidis and Dimitrios Kourbelis (plus an own goal). Such a win will surely inspire confidence in the Balkan nation’s squad, which is in fantastic form. However, their defence — led by Tsimikas — will have to deal with Kvaratskhelia, who is returning to the lineup following a one-game suspension.

While Greece have always been considered a strong mid-level nation in Europe, they have not qualified for a major tournament since the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. With respect to the Euro, they have not seen the pitch since the 2012 edition, which was co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine. In that tournament, Greece went to the quarterfinals (the round of 16 did not exist before the 2016 edition) before losing to Germany. Ultimately, Greece’s players do not boast significant international experience at a major tournament and thereby have a lot to prove, especially as favourites against Georgia.

As for Georgia, it cannot be stressed enough how massive of an achievement it would be for the Caucasus nation to qualify for the final tournament. A first appearance at the big stage s always a joy for the nation’s players, the staff and the people of the nation.

Prediction: Despite playing on the road, the Greek players will leverage their high-level experience from club football and prevent Georgia from obtaining their first appearance at the Euro with a 2-1 victory, consequently sending Greece back into a major tournament for the first time in a decade.